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Blackpool vs Sunderland — League One 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
CANC
15:00
Sunderland
Sunderland
3/14/2020League OneLeague One · Round 38Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Blackpool39%
×Draw27%
Sunderland34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.31
Sunderland
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 86 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.53
Sunderland
1.30

allows per match

Blackpool
1.09
Sunderland
1.09

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
66%
Blackpool or Sunderland
73%
Draw or Sunderland
61%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
18%
Sunderland wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
73%
Blackpool 2+ goals
38%
Blackpool 3+ goals
14%
Sunderland 1+ goals
70%
Sunderland 2+ goals
34%
Sunderland 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
54%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 133 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.53 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Blackpool defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blackpool scores more
39%
level
27%
Sunderland scores more
34%

Blackpool at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blackpool vs Sunderland — Match Preview

Blackpool face Sunderland on March 14, 2020 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Blackpool host Sunderland at Bloomfield Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.