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Sunderland vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Blackburn
Blackburn
E. Simms 90+1'
R. Stewart 22' (pen)
R. Stewart 18' (OG)
12/26/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Sunderland45%
×Draw28%
Blackburn27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.33
Blackburn
0.95

Sunderland creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.29
Blackburn
1.02

allows per match

Sunderland
0.88
Blackburn
1.38

finishing

Sunderland-0.06on par
Blackburn+0.05on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
73%
Sunderland or Blackburn
72%
Draw or Blackburn
55%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
21%
Blackburn wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
74%
Sunderland 2+ goals
38%
Sunderland 3+ goals
15%
Blackburn 1+ goals
61%
Blackburn 2+ goals
25%
Blackburn 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
63%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.29 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Blackburn attack 1.02 + Sunderland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sunderland scores more
45%
level
28%
Blackburn scores more
27%

Sunderland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
D. BallardSunderlandSunderland · D
7.3

Match Events

18'
R. StewartOwn goal
22'
R. StewartPenalty
25'
Tyler Morton
39'
Dennis Cirkin
51'
T. Hume← D. Cirkin
52'
Daniel Ayala
60'
Trai Hume
77'
L. Travis← B. Dack
77'
G. Hirst← S. Gallagher
79'
B. Wright← L. Gooch
80'
E. Simms← P. Roberts
87'
John Buckley
90+4'
Amad Diallo
90+4'
Joe Rankin-Costello
90'
George Hirst
90+1'
E. Simms↳ D. Ballard

Possession

50%Sunderland

Shots

11Sunderland

Pass accuracy

50%Sunderland

Statistics

SunderlandBlackburn
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots6
7Corners3
15Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots6
5On Target2
3Off Target3
3Blocked1
7Inside Box3
4Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
361Total Passes371
250Accurate Passes261
69%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls13
3Yellow Cards5
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Blackburn

Sunderland beat Blackburn 2-1 in Championship on December 26, 2022.

Goals: R. Stewart (18' o.g., 22' pen), E. Simms (90+1').

Sunderland controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.