Blackburn 2–2 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sunderland

H. Leonard 90'

Y. Ohashi 13'

W. Isidor 55'

C. Rigg 51'

12/26/2024

Championship · Round 23Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Blackburn41%

×Draw27%

Sunderland31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Blackburn

1.31

Sunderland

1.10

Blackburn creates 19% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 40 away

1.31

creates per match

1.14

1.06

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Sunderland

1.14

allows per match

Blackburn

1.06

Sunderland

1.32

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less

Sunderland-0.01on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

69%

Blackburn or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

59%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

19%

Sunderland wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

73%

Blackburn 2+ goals

38%

Blackburn 3+ goals

14%

Sunderland 1+ goals

67%

Sunderland 2+ goals

30%

Sunderland 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

57%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Sunderland defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sunderland attack 1.14 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blackburn scores more

41%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

31%

Blackburn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

D. Cirkin

Sunderland · D

7.5

Match Events

13'

29'

33'

51'

55'

W. Isidor↳ P. Roberts

58'

Dominic Hyam

60'

M. Gueye← Y. Ohashi

60'

A. Cozier-Duberry← R. Hedges

78'

A. Weimann← T. Dolan

78'

J. Buckley← L. Baker

83'

Luke O'Nien

86'

A. Aouchiche← C. Rigg

87'

H. Leonard← S. Tronstad

90+4'

Patrick Roberts

90'

H. Leonard↳ M. Gueye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnSunderland

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots13

1.89Expected Goals (xG)1.20

5Corners4

11Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots13

3On Target4

3Off Target8

6Blocked1

10Inside Box11

2Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

463Total Passes348

349Accurate Passes281

75%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.26Goals Prevented-0.26

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1