Sunderland 1–1 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Birmingham

L. Grabban 21'

S. Gallagher 16'

12/23/2017

Championship · Round 23Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Sunderland46%

×Draw28%

Birmingham26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.91

Sunderland

1.32

Birmingham

0.91

Sunderland creates 45% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 37 away

1.34

creates per match

0.96

0.85

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Sunderland

1.34

Birmingham

0.96

allows per match

Sunderland

0.85

Birmingham

1.30

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Sunderland+0.02on par

Birmingham-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

74%

Sunderland or Birmingham

72%

Draw or Birmingham

54%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

21%

Birmingham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

73%

Sunderland 2+ goals

38%

Sunderland 3+ goals

15%

Birmingham 1+ goals

60%

Birmingham 2+ goals

23%

Birmingham 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

64%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.85 · 28 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.34 + Birmingham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.32

Birmingham attack 0.96 + Sunderland defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sunderland scores more

46%

level

28%

Birmingham scores more

26%

Sunderland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Gardner

Birmingham · M

8.1

Match Events

16'

21'

56'

64'

67'

67'

74'

74'

75'

79'

80'

80'

D. Davis← Jota Peleteiro

86'

L. Jutkiewicz← C. NDoye

90'

Jonathan Grounds

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandBirmingham

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots16

6Corners2

13Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots16

4On Target5

9Off Target5

6Blocked6

9Inside Box10

10Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

409Total Passes370

307Accurate Passes288

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

0Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Championship: Sunderland 1–1 Birmingham

Sunderland and Birmingham drew 1-1 in Championship on December 23, 2017.

Goals: S. Gallagher (16'), L. Grabban (21').

Sunderland controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.

Sunderland vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Sunderland 1–1 Birmingham