Birmingham 3–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sunderland

S. Gallagher 54'

J. Boga 44'

D. Davis 28'

B. Oviedo 83'

1/30/2018

Championship · Round 29St. Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Birmingham45%

×Draw27%

Sunderland28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.06

Birmingham

1.42

Sunderland

1.06

Birmingham creates 34% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 42 away

1.55

creates per match

1.14

0.98

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Birmingham

1.55

Sunderland

1.14

allows per match

Birmingham

0.98

Sunderland

1.29

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Birmingham-0.09on par

Sunderland+0.05on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

72%

Birmingham or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

55%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

22%

Sunderland wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

76%

Birmingham 2+ goals

41%

Birmingham 3+ goals

17%

Sunderland 1+ goals

65%

Sunderland 2+ goals

29%

Sunderland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

62%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 35 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.55 + Sunderland defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sunderland attack 1.14 + Birmingham defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Birmingham scores more

45%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

28%

Birmingham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

D. Davis

Birmingham · M

8.2

Match Events

28'

44'

47'

52'

54'

S. Gallagher↳ D. Davis

58'

Ethan Robson

59'

David Davis

60'

K. LuaLua← J. Maja

61'

Jota Peleteiro← J. Maghoma

65'

A. McGeady← J. Clarke-Salter

78'

George Honeyman

81'

Che Adams← D. Davis

83'

B. Oviedo↳ G. Honeyman

84'

L. Jutkiewicz← S. Gallagher

84'

L. Gooch← J. Asoro

87'

Jonathan Grounds

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamSunderland

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots14

3Corners5

11Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots14

5On Target4

4Off Target5

4Blocked5

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

384Total Passes407

262Accurate Passes284

68%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1