Sunderland 2–1 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Birmingham

4/15/2023

Championship · Round 42Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sunderland47%

×Draw31%

Birmingham22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.71

Sunderland

1.19

Birmingham

0.71

Sunderland creates 68% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.25

creates per match

0.81

0.61

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sunderland

1.25

Birmingham

0.81

allows per match

Sunderland

0.61

Birmingham

1.13

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Sunderland+0.13scores more

Birmingham-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

78%

Sunderland or Birmingham

69%

Draw or Birmingham

53%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

21%

Birmingham wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

70%

Sunderland 2+ goals

33%

Sunderland 3+ goals

12%

Birmingham 1+ goals

51%

Birmingham 2+ goals

16%

Birmingham 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

68%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.61 · 8 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.25 + Birmingham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Birmingham attack 0.81 + Sunderland defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sunderland scores more

47%

level

31%

Birmingham scores more

22%

Sunderland at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff