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Sunderland vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Barnsley
Barnsley
11/27/2018League OneLeague One · Round 20Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Sunderland45%
×Draw25%
Barnsley30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.57
Barnsley
1.25

Sunderland creates 26% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 121 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.84
Barnsley
1.57

allows per match

Sunderland
0.92
Barnsley
1.30

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
70%
Sunderland or Barnsley
75%
Draw or Barnsley
55%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
23%
Barnsley wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
79%
Sunderland 2+ goals
46%
Sunderland 3+ goals
21%
Barnsley 1+ goals
71%
Barnsley 2+ goals
36%
Barnsley 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
60%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.92 · 89 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.84 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.57

Barnsley attack 1.57 + Sunderland defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sunderland scores more
45%
level
25%
Barnsley scores more
30%

Sunderland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Sunderland 4–2 Barnsley

Sunderland beat Barnsley 4-2 in League One on November 27, 2018.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.