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Barnsley vs Sunderland — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sunderland
Sunderland
3/12/2019League OneLeague One · Round 37Oakwell Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Barnsley39%
×Draw26%
Sunderland35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.39
Sunderland
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 88 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.68
Sunderland
1.28

allows per match

Barnsley
1.30
Sunderland
1.09

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
65%
Barnsley or Sunderland
74%
Draw or Sunderland
61%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
18%
Sunderland wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
75%
Barnsley 2+ goals
40%
Barnsley 3+ goals
16%
Sunderland 1+ goals
72%
Sunderland 2+ goals
37%
Sunderland 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
53%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sunderland attack 1.28 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barnsley scores more
39%
level
26%
Sunderland scores more
35%

Barnsley at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Barnsley 0–0 Sunderland

Barnsley and Sunderland drew 0-0 in League One on March 12, 2019.

The match was played at Oakwell Ground in Barnsley.