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Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku — Premyer Liqa 2019

Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
9/21/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 5Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Sumqayıt28%
×Draw27%
Neftchi Baku45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.43

Neftchi Baku creates 35% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 108 away

creates per match

Sumqayıt
1.03
Neftchi Baku
1.38

allows per match

Sumqayıt
1.48
Neftchi Baku
1.09

finishing

Sumqayıt+0.00on par
Neftchi Baku+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sumqayıt ↓

Neftchi Baku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sumqayıt or draw
55%
Sumqayıt or Neftchi Baku
73%
Draw or Neftchi Baku
72%

Winning margin

Sumqayıt wins by 2+
11%
Neftchi Baku wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sumqayıt 1+ goals
65%
Sumqayıt 2+ goals
29%
Sumqayıt 3+ goals
9%
Neftchi Baku 1+ goals
76%
Neftchi Baku 2+ goals
42%
Neftchi Baku 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sumqayıt (draw refunded)
38%
Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sumqayıt at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 108 matches

Neftchi Baku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sumqayıt attack 1.03 + Neftchi Baku defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Neftchi Baku attack 1.38 + Sumqayıt defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sumqayıt scores more
28%
level
27%
Neftchi Baku scores more
45%

Neftchi Baku at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Neftchi Baku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku

Neftchi Baku beat Sumqayıt 2-0 in Premyer Liqa on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium in Sumqayit.