Neftchi Baku 2–2 Sumqayıt: Result & Stats

Neftchi Baku

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sumqayıt

12/15/2025

Premyer Liqa · Round 15Palms Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Neftchi Baku51%

×Draw25%

Sumqayıt24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neftchi BakuExpected goals in this matchSumqayıt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.98

Neftchi Baku

1.57

Sumqayıt

0.98

Neftchi Baku creates 60% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 108 away

1.68

creates per match

0.94

1.02

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Neftchi Baku

1.68

Sumqayıt

0.94

allows per match

Neftchi Baku

1.02

Sumqayıt

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neftchi Baku+0.00on par

Sumqayıt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi Baku ↓

Sumqayıt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Neftchi Baku or draw

76%

Neftchi Baku or Sumqayıt

75%

Draw or Sumqayıt

49%

Winning margin

Neftchi Baku wins by 2+

27%

Sumqayıt wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Neftchi Baku 1+ goals

79%

Neftchi Baku 2+ goals

46%

Neftchi Baku 3+ goals

21%

Sumqayıt 1+ goals

62%

Sumqayıt 2+ goals

26%

Sumqayıt 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)

68%

Sumqayıt (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi Baku at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 109 matches

Sumqayıt away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi Baku attack 1.68 + Sumqayıt defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sumqayıt attack 0.94 + Neftchi Baku defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Neftchi Baku scores more

51%

level

25%

Sumqayıt scores more

24%

Neftchi Baku at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Neftchi Baku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff