Šumperk 3–2 Nové Sady: Result & Stats

Šumperk

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Nové Sady

5/14/2023

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 22Městský Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Šumperk46%

×Draw22%

Nové Sady32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠumperkExpected goals in this matchNové Sady

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.54

Šumperk

1.89

Nové Sady

1.54

Šumperk creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 78 away

1.65

creates per match

1.49

1.59

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Šumperk

1.65

Nové Sady

1.49

allows per match

Šumperk

1.59

Nové Sady

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šumperk+0.00on par

Nové Sady+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumperk ↓

Nové Sady →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Šumperk or draw

68%

Šumperk or Nové Sady

78%

Draw or Nové Sady

54%

Winning margin

Šumperk wins by 2+

25%

Nové Sady wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Šumperk 1+ goals

85%

Šumperk 2+ goals

56%

Šumperk 3+ goals

29%

Nové Sady 1+ goals

79%

Nové Sady 2+ goals

45%

Nové Sady 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Šumperk (draw refunded)

59%

Nové Sady (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumperk at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Nové Sady away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.12 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumperk attack 1.65 + Nové Sady defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.89

Nové Sady attack 1.49 + Šumperk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Šumperk scores more

46%

level

22%

Nové Sady scores more

32%

Šumperk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Šumperk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff