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Nové Sady vs Šumperk — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Nové Sady
Nové Sady
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Šumperk
Šumperk
10/1/20224. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 9Stadion FK Nové Sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Nové Sady52%
×Draw22%
Šumperk26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Sady
1.98
Šumperk
1.36

Nové Sady creates 46% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 50 away

creates per match

Nové Sady
1.80
Šumperk
1.26

allows per match

Nové Sady
1.46
Šumperk
2.16

finishing

Nové Sady+0.00on par
Šumperk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Sady ↓

Šumperk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Nové Sady or draw
74%
Nové Sady or Šumperk
78%
Draw or Šumperk
48%

Winning margin

Nové Sady wins by 2+
30%
Šumperk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nové Sady 1+ goals
86%
Nové Sady 2+ goals
59%
Nové Sady 3+ goals
31%
Šumperk 1+ goals
74%
Šumperk 2+ goals
39%
Šumperk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nové Sady (draw refunded)
66%
Šumperk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Sady at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 82 matches

Šumperk away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.16 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Sady attack 1.80 + Šumperk defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.98

Šumperk attack 1.26 + Nové Sady defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nové Sady scores more
52%
level
22%
Šumperk scores more
26%

Nové Sady at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nové Sady will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nové Sady vs Šumperk

Nové Sady beat Šumperk 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Nové Sady in Olomouc.