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Šumperk vs Havířov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Šumperk
Šumperk
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Havířov
Havířov
4/19/20264. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Šumperk35%
×Draw24%
Havířov41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šumperk
1.52
Havířov
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Šumperk
1.43
Havířov
2.01

allows per match

Šumperk
1.30
Havířov
1.61

finishing

Šumperk+0.00on par
Havířov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumperk ↓

Havířov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Šumperk or draw
59%
Šumperk or Havířov
76%
Draw or Havířov
65%

Winning margin

Šumperk wins by 2+
17%
Havířov wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Šumperk 1+ goals
78%
Šumperk 2+ goals
45%
Šumperk 3+ goals
20%
Havířov 1+ goals
81%
Havířov 2+ goals
49%
Havířov 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Šumperk (draw refunded)
46%
Havířov (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumperk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Havířov away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumperk attack 1.43 + Havířov defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Havířov attack 2.01 + Šumperk defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Šumperk scores more
35%
level
24%
Havířov scores more
41%

Havířov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Šumperk 2–3 Havířov

Havířov beat Šumperk 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on April 19, 2026.