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Havířov vs Šumperk — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Havířov
Havířov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Šumperk
Šumperk
3/10/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 16Stadion Dukla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Havířov47%
×Draw23%
Šumperk30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havířov
1.75
Šumperk
1.35

Havířov creates 30% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 30 away

creates per match

Havířov
2.38
Šumperk
1.43

allows per match

Havířov
1.27
Šumperk
1.13

finishing

Havířov+0.00on par
Šumperk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havířov ↓

Šumperk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Havířov or draw
70%
Havířov or Šumperk
77%
Draw or Šumperk
53%

Winning margin

Havířov wins by 2+
25%
Šumperk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Havířov 1+ goals
83%
Havířov 2+ goals
52%
Havířov 3+ goals
25%
Šumperk 1+ goals
74%
Šumperk 2+ goals
39%
Šumperk 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Havířov (draw refunded)
61%
Šumperk (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havířov at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Šumperk away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havířov attack 2.38 + Šumperk defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.75

Šumperk attack 1.43 + Havířov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Havířov scores more
47%
level
23%
Šumperk scores more
30%

Havířov at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Havířov vs Šumperk

Havířov beat Šumperk 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dukla in Havířov.