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Šumperk vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Šumperk
Šumperk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
3/31/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 19Městský Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Šumperk52%
×Draw22%
Beskyd Frenštát26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šumperk
1.90
Beskyd Frenštát
1.27

Šumperk creates 50% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Šumperk
1.43
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Šumperk
1.30
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Šumperk+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumperk ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Šumperk or draw
74%
Šumperk or Beskyd Frenštát
78%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
48%

Winning margin

Šumperk wins by 2+
30%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Šumperk 1+ goals
85%
Šumperk 2+ goals
56%
Šumperk 3+ goals
29%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
72%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
36%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Šumperk (draw refunded)
67%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumperk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumperk attack 1.43 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.90

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Šumperk defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Šumperk scores more
52%
level
22%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
26%

Šumperk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Šumperk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Šumperk 0–2 Beskyd Frenštát

Beskyd Frenštát beat Šumperk 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Městský Stadion in Šumperk.