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Beskyd Frenštát vs Šumperk — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Šumperk
Šumperk
8/27/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 4Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát32%
×Draw24%
Šumperk43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beskyd Frenštát
1.36
Šumperk
1.61

Šumperk creates 18% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 30 away

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.59
Šumperk
1.43

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.80
Šumperk
1.13

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par
Šumperk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Šumperk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw
57%
Beskyd Frenštát or Šumperk
76%
Draw or Šumperk
68%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
14%
Šumperk wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
74%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
39%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
16%
Šumperk 1+ goals
80%
Šumperk 2+ goals
48%
Šumperk 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
43%
Šumperk (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Šumperk away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Šumperk defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Šumperk attack 1.43 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more
32%
level
24%
Šumperk scores more
43%

Šumperk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Šumperk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Beskyd Frenštát 0–0 Šumperk

Beskyd Frenštát and Šumperk drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Na Nivách in Frenštát pod Radhoštěm.