Sumida Gepro 0–5 Deren: Result & Stats

Sumida Gepro

FT

0 – 5

Deren

9/4/2020

Premier League · Round 13Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sumida Gepro4%

×Draw7%

Deren89%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sumida GeproExpected goals in this matchDeren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

4.17

Sumida Gepro

0.86

Deren

4.17

Deren creates 385% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 80 away

0.56

creates per match

2.66

5.67

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Sumida Gepro

0.56

Deren

2.66

allows per match

Sumida Gepro

5.67

Deren

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sumida Gepro+0.00on par

Deren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sumida Gepro ↓

Deren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–27%

0–39%

0–49%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–33%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Sumida Gepro or draw

11%

Sumida Gepro or Deren

93%

Draw or Deren

96%

Winning margin

Sumida Gepro wins by 2+

1%

Deren wins by 2+

76%

Team goals

Sumida Gepro 1+ goals

58%

Sumida Gepro 2+ goals

21%

Sumida Gepro 3+ goals

6%

Deren 1+ goals

98%

Deren 2+ goals

91%

Deren 3+ goals

75%

Draw no bet

Sumida Gepro (draw refunded)

4%

Deren (draw refunded)

96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sumida Gepro at home — creates 0.56, concedes 5.67 · 9 matches

Deren away — creates 2.66, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sumida Gepro attack 0.56 + Deren defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.86

Deren attack 2.66 + Sumida Gepro defence 5.67 → ÷2 → 4.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Sumida Gepro scores more

4%

level

7%

Deren scores more

89%

Deren at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff