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Deren vs Sumida Gepro — Premier League 2020

Deren
Deren
FT
7 – 0
Sumida Gepro
Sumida Gepro
7/25/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Deren90%
×Draw7%
Sumida Gepro3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deren
3.96
Sumida Gepro
0.72

Deren creates 450% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 9 away

creates per match

Deren
2.82
Sumida Gepro
0.22

allows per match

Deren
1.23
Sumida Gepro
5.11

finishing

Deren+0.00on par
Sumida Gepro+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deren ↓

Sumida Gepro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Deren or draw
97%
Deren or Sumida Gepro
93%
Draw or Sumida Gepro
10%

Winning margin

Deren wins by 2+
76%
Sumida Gepro wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Deren 1+ goals
98%
Deren 2+ goals
89%
Deren 3+ goals
73%
Sumida Gepro 1+ goals
51%
Sumida Gepro 2+ goals
16%
Sumida Gepro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deren (draw refunded)
97%
Sumida Gepro (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deren at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Sumida Gepro away — creates 0.22, concedes 5.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deren attack 2.82 + Sumida Gepro defence 5.11 → ÷2 → 3.96

Sumida Gepro attack 0.22 + Deren defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Deren scores more
90%
level
7%
Sumida Gepro scores more
3%

Deren at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Deren 7–0 Sumida Gepro

Deren beat Sumida Gepro 7-0 in Premier League on July 25, 2020.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.