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Šumadija Aranđelovac vs Sloga Požega — Srpska Liga - West 2025

Šumadija Aranđelovac
Šumadija Aranđelovac
FT
0 – 1
Sloga Požega
Sloga Požega
8/15/2020Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Šumadija Aranđelovac27%
×Draw29%
Sloga Požega44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.94
Sloga Požega
1.27

Sloga Požega creates 35% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

creates per match

Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.88
Sloga Požega
0.82

allows per match

Šumadija Aranđelovac
1.72
Sloga Požega
1.00

finishing

Šumadija Aranđelovac+0.00on par
Sloga Požega+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumadija Aranđelovac ↓

Sloga Požega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Šumadija Aranđelovac or draw
56%
Šumadija Aranđelovac or Sloga Požega
71%
Draw or Sloga Požega
73%

Winning margin

Šumadija Aranđelovac wins by 2+
10%
Sloga Požega wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Šumadija Aranđelovac 1+ goals
61%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 2+ goals
24%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 3+ goals
7%
Sloga Požega 1+ goals
72%
Sloga Požega 2+ goals
36%
Sloga Požega 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Šumadija Aranđelovac (draw refunded)
38%
Sloga Požega (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumadija Aranđelovac at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

Sloga Požega away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumadija Aranđelovac attack 0.88 + Sloga Požega defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Sloga Požega attack 0.82 + Šumadija Aranđelovac defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Šumadija Aranđelovac scores more
27%
level
29%
Sloga Požega scores more
44%

Sloga Požega at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sloga Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šumadija Aranđelovac vs Sloga Požega

Sloga Požega beat Šumadija Aranđelovac 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Aranđelovac.