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Sloga Požega vs Šumadija Aranđelovac — Srpska Liga - West 2025

Sloga Požega
Sloga Požega
FT
3 – 0
Šumadija Aranđelovac
Šumadija Aranđelovac
3/6/2021Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 18Stadion FK Sloga Požega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sloga Požega72%
×Draw18%
Šumadija Aranđelovac10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Požega
2.25
Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.71

Sloga Požega creates 217% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sloga Požega
1.56
Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.60

allows per match

Sloga Požega
0.83
Šumadija Aranđelovac
2.95

finishing

Sloga Požega+0.00on par
Šumadija Aranđelovac+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Požega ↓

Šumadija Aranđelovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sloga Požega or draw
90%
Sloga Požega or Šumadija Aranđelovac
82%
Draw or Šumadija Aranđelovac
28%

Winning margin

Sloga Požega wins by 2+
48%
Šumadija Aranđelovac wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sloga Požega 1+ goals
89%
Sloga Požega 2+ goals
65%
Sloga Požega 3+ goals
39%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 1+ goals
51%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 2+ goals
16%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sloga Požega (draw refunded)
88%
Šumadija Aranđelovac (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Požega at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Šumadija Aranđelovac away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Požega attack 1.56 + Šumadija Aranđelovac defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.25

Šumadija Aranđelovac attack 0.60 + Sloga Požega defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sloga Požega scores more
72%
level
18%
Šumadija Aranđelovac scores more
10%

Sloga Požega at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sloga Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Požega vs Šumadija Aranđelovac

Sloga Požega beat Šumadija Aranđelovac 3-0 in Srpska Liga - West on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sloga Požega in Požega.