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Šumadija Aranđelovac vs Sloboda Uzice — Srpska Liga - West 2025

Šumadija Aranđelovac
Šumadija Aranđelovac
FT
1 – 2
Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
9/12/2020Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 5Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Šumadija Aranđelovac22%
×Draw27%
Sloboda Uzice51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.87
Sloboda Uzice
1.46

Sloboda Uzice creates 68% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

creates per match

Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.86
Sloboda Uzice
1.00

allows per match

Šumadija Aranđelovac
1.91
Sloboda Uzice
0.88

finishing

Šumadija Aranđelovac+0.00on par
Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumadija Aranđelovac ↓

Sloboda Uzice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Šumadija Aranđelovac or draw
49%
Šumadija Aranđelovac or Sloboda Uzice
73%
Draw or Sloboda Uzice
78%

Winning margin

Šumadija Aranđelovac wins by 2+
7%
Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Šumadija Aranđelovac 1+ goals
58%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 2+ goals
22%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 3+ goals
6%
Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
77%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
43%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Šumadija Aranđelovac (draw refunded)
31%
Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumadija Aranđelovac at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumadija Aranđelovac attack 0.86 + Sloboda Uzice defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Sloboda Uzice attack 1.00 + Šumadija Aranđelovac defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Šumadija Aranđelovac scores more
22%
level
27%
Sloboda Uzice scores more
51%

Sloboda Uzice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sloboda Uzice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Šumadija Aranđelovac 1–2 Sloboda Uzice

Sloboda Uzice beat Šumadija Aranđelovac 2-1 in Srpska Liga - West on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Aranđelovac.