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Sloboda Uzice vs Šumadija Aranđelovac — Srpska Liga - West 2025

Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
FT
2 – 0
Šumadija Aranđelovac
Šumadija Aranđelovac
4/3/2021Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 22Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sloboda Uzice74%
×Draw17%
Šumadija Aranđelovac9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Uzice
2.22
Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.63

Sloboda Uzice creates 252% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.31
Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.63

allows per match

Sloboda Uzice
0.63
Šumadija Aranđelovac
3.13

finishing

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par
Šumadija Aranđelovac+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Uzice ↓

Šumadija Aranđelovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sloboda Uzice or draw
91%
Sloboda Uzice or Šumadija Aranđelovac
83%
Draw or Šumadija Aranđelovac
26%

Winning margin

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
49%
Šumadija Aranđelovac wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
89%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
65%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
38%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 1+ goals
47%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 2+ goals
13%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
89%
Šumadija Aranđelovac (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Uzice at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Šumadija Aranđelovac away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Uzice attack 1.31 + Šumadija Aranđelovac defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.22

Šumadija Aranđelovac attack 0.63 + Sloboda Uzice defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sloboda Uzice scores more
74%
level
17%
Šumadija Aranđelovac scores more
9%

Sloboda Uzice at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sloboda Uzice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Sloboda Uzice 2–0 Šumadija Aranđelovac

Sloboda Uzice beat Šumadija Aranđelovac 2-0 in Srpska Liga - West on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Užice.