Sukhothai FC 5–1 Ranong United: Result & Stats

Sukhothai FC

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ranong United

2/13/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 23Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sukhothai FC66%

×Draw19%

Ranong United15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sukhothai FCExpected goals in this matchRanong United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.99

Sukhothai FC

2.27

Ranong United

0.99

Sukhothai FC creates 129% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

2.76

creates per match

0.86

1.12

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Sukhothai FC

2.76

Ranong United

0.86

allows per match

Sukhothai FC

1.12

Ranong United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Ranong United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Ranong United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw

85%

Sukhothai FC or Ranong United

81%

Draw or Ranong United

34%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+

43%

Ranong United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals

90%

Sukhothai FC 2+ goals

66%

Sukhothai FC 3+ goals

39%

Ranong United 1+ goals

63%

Ranong United 2+ goals

26%

Ranong United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)

81%

Ranong United (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Ranong United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 2.76 + Ranong United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.27

Ranong United attack 0.86 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more

66%

level

19%

Ranong United scores more

15%

Sukhothai FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff