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Ranong United vs Sukhothai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Ranong United
Ranong United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
10/9/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 7Ranong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ranong United34%
×Draw25%
Sukhothai FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranong United
1.37
Sukhothai FC
1.52

Sukhothai FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ranong United
1.27
Sukhothai FC
1.82

allows per match

Ranong United
1.22
Sukhothai FC
1.47

finishing

Ranong United+0.00on par
Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranong United ↓

Sukhothai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ranong United or draw
59%
Ranong United or Sukhothai FC
75%
Draw or Sukhothai FC
66%

Winning margin

Ranong United wins by 2+
15%
Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ranong United 1+ goals
75%
Ranong United 2+ goals
40%
Ranong United 3+ goals
16%
Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
78%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
45%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ranong United (draw refunded)
46%
Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranong United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranong United attack 1.27 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sukhothai FC attack 1.82 + Ranong United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ranong United scores more
34%
level
25%
Sukhothai FC scores more
41%

Sukhothai FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Ranong United 1–1 Sukhothai FC

Ranong United and Sukhothai FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Ranong Stadium in Ranong.