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Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior — Thai League 2 2018

Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
9/18/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 4Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sukhothai FC49%
×Draw23%
Lamphun Warrior28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sukhothai FC
1.85
Lamphun Warrior
1.35

Sukhothai FC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sukhothai FC
2.76
Lamphun Warrior
1.59

allows per match

Sukhothai FC
1.12
Lamphun Warrior
0.94

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw
72%
Sukhothai FC or Lamphun Warrior
77%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
51%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
27%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
84%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
55%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
28%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
74%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
39%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
64%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 2.76 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.59 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more
49%
level
23%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
28%

Sukhothai FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior

Sukhothai FC beat Lamphun Warrior 2-1 in Thai League 2 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Sukhothai.