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Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC — League Cup 2021

Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrioradvanced
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
3/13/2024League CupLeague Cup · Round of 16Mae Guang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lamphun Warrior25%
×Draw29%
Sukhothai FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamphun Warrior
0.85
Sukhothai FC
1.27

Sukhothai FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior
0.50
Sukhothai FC
0.80

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior
1.75
Sukhothai FC
1.20

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par
Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Sukhothai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw
54%
Lamphun Warrior or Sukhothai FC
71%
Draw or Sukhothai FC
75%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
8%
Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
57%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
21%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
5%
Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
72%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
36%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
35%
Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 0.50 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.85

Sukhothai FC attack 0.80 + Lamphun Warrior defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more
25%
level
29%
Sukhothai FC scores more
46%

Sukhothai FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Lamphun Warrior 2–2 Sukhothai FC

Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC drew 2-2 in League Cup on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Mae Guang Stadium in Lamphun.