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Sukhothai FC vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
11/28/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 16Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sukhothai FC66%
×Draw19%
Kasetsart FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sukhothai FC
2.30
Kasetsart FC
1.00

Sukhothai FC creates 130% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 132 away

creates per match

Sukhothai FC
2.76
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Sukhothai FC
1.12
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw
85%
Sukhothai FC or Kasetsart FC
81%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
34%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
43%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
90%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
67%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
40%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
63%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
26%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
81%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 2.76 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.30

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more
66%
level
19%
Kasetsart FC scores more
15%

Sukhothai FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Sukhothai FC 2–2 Kasetsart FC

Sukhothai FC and Kasetsart FC drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Sukhothai.