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Kasetsart FC vs Sukhothai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
4/17/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 32Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kasetsart FC35%
×Draw25%
Sukhothai FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.40
Sukhothai FC
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Sukhothai FC
1.82

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Sukhothai FC
1.47

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Sukhothai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
60%
Kasetsart FC or Sukhothai FC
75%
Draw or Sukhothai FC
65%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
16%
Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
75%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
41%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
17%
Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
78%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
45%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
46%
Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sukhothai FC attack 1.82 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
35%
level
25%
Sukhothai FC scores more
40%

Sukhothai FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Kasetsart FC 1–4 Sukhothai FC

Sukhothai FC beat Kasetsart FC 4-1 in Thai League 2 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Intree Chantarasatit Stadium in Bangkok.