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Sueno vs St. Charles — USL League Two 2018

Sueno
Sueno
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
St. Charles
St. Charles
5/16/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 1Joliet Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sueno51%
×Draw19%
St. Charles30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sueno
2.63
St. Charles
2.00

Sueno creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sueno
2.94
St. Charles
2.42

allows per match

Sueno
1.59
St. Charles
2.33

finishing

Sueno+0.00on par
St. Charles+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sueno ↓

St. Charles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Sueno or draw
70%
Sueno or St. Charles
81%
Draw or St. Charles
49%

Winning margin

Sueno wins by 2+
32%
St. Charles wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sueno 1+ goals
93%
Sueno 2+ goals
73%
Sueno 3+ goals
48%
St. Charles 1+ goals
86%
St. Charles 2+ goals
59%
St. Charles 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Sueno (draw refunded)
63%
St. Charles (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sueno at home — creates 2.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

St. Charles away — creates 2.42, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sueno attack 2.94 + St. Charles defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.63

St. Charles attack 2.42 + Sueno defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sueno scores more
51%
level
19%
St. Charles scores more
30%

Sueno at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sueno vs St. Charles

St. Charles beat Sueno 2-1 in USL League Two on May 16, 2024.

The match was played at Joliet Memorial Stadium in Joliet , Illinois.