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St. Charles vs Sueno — USL League Two 2018

St. Charles
St. Charles
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Sueno
Sueno
7/11/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 16Lutheran High School St. Charles Foot Ball Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

St. Charles44%
×Draw20%
Sueno36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Charles
2.34
Sueno
2.13

St. Charles creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 21 away

creates per match

St. Charles
2.58
Sueno
2.33

allows per match

St. Charles
1.92
Sueno
2.10

finishing

St. Charles+0.00on par
Sueno+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Charles ↓

Sueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

St. Charles or draw
64%
St. Charles or Sueno
80%
Draw or Sueno
56%

Winning margin

St. Charles wins by 2+
26%
Sueno wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

St. Charles 1+ goals
90%
St. Charles 2+ goals
67%
St. Charles 3+ goals
41%
Sueno 1+ goals
88%
Sueno 2+ goals
63%
Sueno 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

St. Charles (draw refunded)
55%
Sueno (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Charles at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Sueno away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Charles attack 2.58 + Sueno defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.34

Sueno attack 2.33 + St. Charles defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

St. Charles scores more
44%
level
20%
Sueno scores more
36%

St. Charles at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "St. Charles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Charles vs Sueno

St. Charles beat Sueno 5-2 in USL League Two on July 11, 2024.

The match was played at Lutheran High School St. Charles Foot Ball Field in St. Peters, Missouri.