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Sueno vs Chicago City — USL League Two 2018

Sueno
Sueno
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chicago City
Chicago City
7/9/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 15Joliet Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sueno50%
×Draw20%
Chicago City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sueno
2.44
Chicago City
1.90

Sueno creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sueno
2.94
Chicago City
2.21

allows per match

Sueno
1.59
Chicago City
1.95

finishing

Sueno+0.00on par
Chicago City+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sueno ↓

Chicago City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Sueno or draw
69%
Sueno or Chicago City
80%
Draw or Chicago City
50%

Winning margin

Sueno wins by 2+
31%
Chicago City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sueno 1+ goals
91%
Sueno 2+ goals
70%
Sueno 3+ goals
43%
Chicago City 1+ goals
85%
Chicago City 2+ goals
56%
Chicago City 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sueno (draw refunded)
62%
Chicago City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sueno at home — creates 2.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Chicago City away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sueno attack 2.94 + Chicago City defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.44

Chicago City attack 2.21 + Sueno defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sueno scores more
50%
level
20%
Chicago City scores more
31%

Sueno at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Sueno 2–2 Chicago City

Sueno and Chicago City drew 2-2 in USL League Two on July 9, 2024.

The match was played at Joliet Memorial Stadium in Joliet , Illinois.