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Chicago City vs Sueno — USL League Two 2018

Chicago City
Chicago City
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Sueno
Sueno
6/9/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 8Hoyne Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chicago City42%
×Draw20%
Sueno37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago City
2.17
Sueno
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Chicago City
2.24
Sueno
2.33

allows per match

Chicago City
1.76
Sueno
2.10

finishing

Chicago City+0.00on par
Sueno+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago City ↓

Sueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Chicago City or draw
63%
Chicago City or Sueno
80%
Draw or Sueno
58%

Winning margin

Chicago City wins by 2+
24%
Sueno wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chicago City 1+ goals
89%
Chicago City 2+ goals
64%
Chicago City 3+ goals
36%
Sueno 1+ goals
87%
Sueno 2+ goals
60%
Sueno 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Chicago City (draw refunded)
53%
Sueno (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago City at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Sueno away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago City attack 2.24 + Sueno defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.17

Sueno attack 2.33 + Chicago City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chicago City scores more
42%
level
20%
Sueno scores more
37%

Chicago City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chicago City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Chicago City 1–5 Sueno

Sueno beat Chicago City 5-1 in USL League Two on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Hoyne Field in Chicago, Illinois.