Suduva Marijampole 1–0 Panevėžys: Result & Stats

Suduva Marijampole

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Panevėžys

4/25/2026

A Lyga · Round 10Marijampole Football Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Suduva Marijampole48%

×Draw26%

Panevėžys26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suduva MarijampoleExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.04

Suduva Marijampole

1.50

Panevėžys

1.04

Suduva Marijampole creates 44% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 127 away

1.56

creates per match

1.29

0.80

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole

1.56

Panevėžys

1.29

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole

0.80

Panevėžys

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

Panevėžys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw

74%

Suduva Marijampole or Panevėžys

74%

Draw or Panevėžys

52%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

24%

Panevėžys wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

78%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

44%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

19%

Panevėžys 1+ goals

65%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

28%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

65%

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.80 · 128 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.56 + Panevėžys defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Panevėžys attack 1.29 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more

48%

level

26%

Panevėžys scores more

26%

Suduva Marijampole at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff