Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys — Cup 2020

Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Panevėžys
Panevėžysadvanced
9/16/2025CupCup · Semi-finalsMarijampolės futbolo arenos maniežas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Suduva Marijampole14%
×Draw21%
Panevėžys65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suduva Marijampole
0.76
Panevėžys
1.94

Panevėžys creates 155% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole
0.75
Panevėžys
3.12

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole
0.75
Panevėžys
0.76

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par
Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

Panevėžys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw
35%
Suduva Marijampole or Panevėžys
79%
Draw or Panevėžys
86%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+
4%
Panevėžys wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals
53%
Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals
18%
Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals
4%
Panevėžys 1+ goals
86%
Panevėžys 2+ goals
58%
Panevėžys 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)
18%
Panevėžys (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 3.12, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 0.75 + Panevėžys defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Panevėžys attack 3.12 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more
14%
level
21%
Panevėžys scores more
65%

Panevėžys at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys

Panevėžys beat Suduva Marijampole 2-0 in Cup on September 16, 2025.

The match was played at Marijampolės futbolo arenos maniežas in Marijampolė.