Sūduva II 0–1 Minija: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Sūduva II

FT

0 – 1

Minija

6/20/2021

1 Lyga · Round 11Hikvision arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sūduva II37%

×Draw26%

Minija37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sūduva IIExpected goals in this matchMinija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.33

Sūduva II

1.32

Minija

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 101 away

0.85

creates per match

1.34

1.31

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Sūduva II

0.85

Minija

1.34

allows per match

Sūduva II

1.31

Minija

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sūduva II+0.00on par

Minija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sūduva II ↓

Minija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sūduva II or draw

63%

Sūduva II or Minija

74%

Draw or Minija

63%

Winning margin

Sūduva II wins by 2+

16%

Minija wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sūduva II 1+ goals

73%

Sūduva II 2+ goals

38%

Sūduva II 3+ goals

15%

Minija 1+ goals

74%

Minija 2+ goals

38%

Minija 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sūduva II (draw refunded)

50%

Minija (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sūduva II at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Minija away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.80 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sūduva II attack 0.85 + Minija defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.32

Minija attack 1.34 + Sūduva II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sūduva II scores more

37%

level

26%

Minija scores more

37%

Sūduva II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sūduva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff