Minija 1–1 Sūduva II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Minija

FT

1 – 1

Sūduva II

10/2/2021

1 Lyga · Round 24Kretingos miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Minija56%

×Draw23%

Sūduva II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MinijaExpected goals in this matchSūduva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.99

Minija

1.77

Sūduva II

0.99

Minija creates 79% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 13 away

1.46

creates per match

0.69

1.30

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Minija

1.46

Sūduva II

0.69

allows per match

Minija

1.30

Sūduva II

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minija+0.00on par

Sūduva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minija ↓

Sūduva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Minija or draw

79%

Minija or Sūduva II

77%

Draw or Sūduva II

44%

Winning margin

Minija wins by 2+

31%

Sūduva II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Minija 1+ goals

83%

Minija 2+ goals

53%

Minija 3+ goals

26%

Sūduva II 1+ goals

63%

Sūduva II 2+ goals

26%

Sūduva II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Minija (draw refunded)

73%

Sūduva II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minija at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 104 matches

Sūduva II away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minija attack 1.46 + Sūduva II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sūduva II attack 0.69 + Minija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Minija scores more

56%

level

23%

Sūduva II scores more

21%

Minija at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Minija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff