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Sūduva II vs Banga II — 1 Lyga 2026

Sūduva II
Sūduva II
FT
0 – 2
Banga II
Banga II
P. Lotuzys 19', 18' (pen)
4/18/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 5Hikvision Football Indoor Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sūduva II45%
×Draw26%
Banga II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sūduva II
1.49
Banga II
1.13

Sūduva II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 43 away

creates per match

Sūduva II
0.85
Banga II
0.95

allows per match

Sūduva II
1.31
Banga II
2.12

finishing

Sūduva II+0.00on par
Banga II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sūduva II ↓

Banga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sūduva II or draw
71%
Sūduva II or Banga II
74%
Draw or Banga II
55%

Winning margin

Sūduva II wins by 2+
22%
Banga II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sūduva II 1+ goals
77%
Sūduva II 2+ goals
44%
Sūduva II 3+ goals
19%
Banga II 1+ goals
68%
Banga II 2+ goals
31%
Banga II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sūduva II (draw refunded)
61%
Banga II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sūduva II at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Banga II away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sūduva II attack 0.85 + Banga II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.49

Banga II attack 0.95 + Sūduva II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sūduva II scores more
45%
level
26%
Banga II scores more
29%

Sūduva II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sūduva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
P. LotuzysPenalty
19'
P. Lotuzys

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Sūduva II 0–2 Banga II

Banga II beat Sūduva II 2-0 in 1 Lyga on April 18, 2021.

Goals: P. Lotuzys (18' pen, 19').

The match was played at Hikvision Football Indoor Arena in Marijampolė.