Banga II 3–1 Sūduva II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Banga II

FT

3 – 1

Sūduva II

8/15/2021

1 Lyga · Round 18Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Banga II44%

×Draw24%

Sūduva II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banga IIExpected goals in this matchSūduva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.35

Banga II

1.61

Sūduva II

1.35

Banga II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 13 away

1.14

creates per match

0.69

2.02

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Banga II

1.14

Sūduva II

0.69

allows per match

Banga II

2.02

Sūduva II

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banga II+0.00on par

Sūduva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga II ↓

Sūduva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Banga II or draw

68%

Banga II or Sūduva II

76%

Draw or Sūduva II

56%

Winning margin

Banga II wins by 2+

22%

Sūduva II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Banga II 1+ goals

80%

Banga II 2+ goals

48%

Banga II 3+ goals

22%

Sūduva II 1+ goals

74%

Sūduva II 2+ goals

39%

Sūduva II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Banga II (draw refunded)

58%

Sūduva II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.02 · 43 matches

Sūduva II away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga II attack 1.14 + Sūduva II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sūduva II attack 0.69 + Banga II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Banga II scores more

44%

level

24%

Sūduva II scores more

32%

Banga II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Banga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff