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Sūduva II vs Babrungas — 1 Lyga 2026

Sūduva II
Sūduva II
FT
1 – 0
Babrungas
Babrungas
8/3/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 16Hikvision arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sūduva II28%
×Draw26%
Babrungas46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sūduva II
1.09
Babrungas
1.49

Babrungas creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 79 away

creates per match

Sūduva II
0.85
Babrungas
1.67

allows per match

Sūduva II
1.31
Babrungas
1.34

finishing

Sūduva II+0.00on par
Babrungas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sūduva II ↓

Babrungas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sūduva II or draw
54%
Sūduva II or Babrungas
74%
Draw or Babrungas
72%

Winning margin

Sūduva II wins by 2+
11%
Babrungas wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sūduva II 1+ goals
66%
Sūduva II 2+ goals
30%
Sūduva II 3+ goals
10%
Babrungas 1+ goals
77%
Babrungas 2+ goals
44%
Babrungas 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sūduva II (draw refunded)
37%
Babrungas (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sūduva II at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Babrungas away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sūduva II attack 0.85 + Babrungas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.09

Babrungas attack 1.67 + Sūduva II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sūduva II scores more
28%
level
26%
Babrungas scores more
46%

Babrungas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sūduva II vs Babrungas

Sūduva II beat Babrungas 1-0 in 1 Lyga on August 3, 2021.

The match was played at Hikvision arena in Marijampolė.