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Babrungas vs Sūduva II — 1 Lyga 2026

Babrungas
Babrungas
FT
1 – 0
Sūduva II
Sūduva II
4/3/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 3Plungės Stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Babrungas63%
×Draw20%
Sūduva II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Babrungas
2.10
Sūduva II
0.97

Babrungas creates 116% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 13 away

creates per match

Babrungas
2.12
Sūduva II
0.69

allows per match

Babrungas
1.26
Sūduva II
2.08

finishing

Babrungas+0.00on par
Sūduva II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Babrungas ↓

Sūduva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Babrungas or draw
83%
Babrungas or Sūduva II
80%
Draw or Sūduva II
37%

Winning margin

Babrungas wins by 2+
39%
Sūduva II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Babrungas 1+ goals
88%
Babrungas 2+ goals
62%
Babrungas 3+ goals
35%
Sūduva II 1+ goals
62%
Sūduva II 2+ goals
25%
Sūduva II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Babrungas (draw refunded)
79%
Sūduva II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Babrungas at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

Sūduva II away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Babrungas attack 2.12 + Sūduva II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.10

Sūduva II attack 0.69 + Babrungas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Babrungas scores more
63%
level
20%
Sūduva II scores more
17%

Babrungas at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Babrungas 1–0 Sūduva II

Babrungas beat Sūduva II 1-0 in 1 Lyga on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Plungės Stadionas in Plungė.