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Suduroy vs B68 — Meistaradeildin 2019

Suduroy
Suduroy
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
B68
B68
J. Josephsen 83'
M. Non 73'
S. Lau 27'
6/21/2025MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 14Vesturi á Eiðinum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Suduroy30%
×Draw21%
B6848%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suduroy
1.58
B68
2.04

B68 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

creates per match

Suduroy
1.00
B68
1.07

allows per match

Suduroy
3.00
B68
2.16

finishing

Suduroy+0.00on par
B68+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduroy ↓

B68 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Suduroy or draw
52%
Suduroy or B68
79%
Draw or B68
70%

Winning margin

Suduroy wins by 2+
14%
B68 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Suduroy 1+ goals
79%
Suduroy 2+ goals
47%
Suduroy 3+ goals
21%
B68 1+ goals
87%
B68 2+ goals
60%
B68 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Suduroy (draw refunded)
38%
B68 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduroy at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

B68 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduroy attack 1.00 + B68 defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

B68 attack 1.07 + Suduroy defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Suduroy scores more
30%
level
21%
B68 scores more
48%

B68 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "B68 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
O. Godtfred
27'
S. Lau
41'
S. Bech
50'
S. Lau
60'
H. Bell
61'
M. Jacobsen← M. Jacobsen
61'
M. Non← M. Non
61'
A. Kilgour← A. Kilgour
73'
M. Non
75'
F. Borg← F. Borg
77'
T. Hjelm← T. Hjelm
77'
O. Thomsen← O. Thomsen
83'
J. Josephsen
84'
T. Logv← T. Logv
87'
J. Joensen← J. Joensen
87'
B. Holm← B. Holm

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suduroy 0 – 3 B68

B68 beat Suduroy 3-0 in Meistaradeildin on June 21, 2025.

Goals: S. Lau (27'), M. Non (73'), J. Josephsen (83').

The match was played at Vesturi á Eiðinum in Vágur, Suðuroy.