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B68 vs Suduroy — Meistaradeildin 2019

B68
B68
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Suduroy
Suduroy
R. Olsen 32' (OG)
B. Holm 22'
8/17/2025MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 19Svangaskarð

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

B6848%
×Draw23%
Suduroy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B68
1.81
Suduroy
1.35

B68 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

B68
1.21
Suduroy
0.74

allows per match

B68
1.96
Suduroy
2.42

finishing

B68+0.00on par
Suduroy+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 ↓

Suduroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

B68 or draw
71%
B68 or Suduroy
77%
Draw or Suduroy
52%

Winning margin

B68 wins by 2+
26%
Suduroy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

B68 1+ goals
84%
B68 2+ goals
54%
B68 3+ goals
27%
Suduroy 1+ goals
74%
Suduroy 2+ goals
39%
Suduroy 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

B68 (draw refunded)
63%
Suduroy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.96 · 76 matches

Suduroy away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 attack 1.21 + Suduroy defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.81

Suduroy attack 0.74 + B68 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

B68 scores more
48%
level
23%
Suduroy scores more
29%

B68 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "B68 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
B. Holm
24'
L. Guttesen
32'
R. OlsenOwn goal
33'
J. Vilhelmsen
33'
B. Holm
46'
D. Samuelsen← D. Samuelsen
61'
B. Holm← B. Holm
63'
S. Lau
66'
S. Lau← S. Lau
66'
L. Guttesen← L. Guttesen
70'
B. Jensen
79'
P. Mensah← P. Mensah
90+2'
J. Joensen← J. Joensen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: B68 vs Suduroy

B68 and Suduroy drew 1-1 in Meistaradeildin on August 17, 2025.

Goals: B. Holm (22'), R. Olsen (32' o.g.).

The match was played at Svangaskarð in Toftir, Eysturoy.