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Suduroy vs B36 II — 1. Deild 2019

Suduroy
Suduroy
FT
1 – 1
B36 II
B36 II
9/25/20211. Deild1. Deild · Round 24Vesturi á Eiðinum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Suduroy54%
×Draw20%
B36 II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suduroy
2.30
B36 II
1.54

Suduroy creates 49% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 100 away

creates per match

Suduroy
2.37
B36 II
1.56

allows per match

Suduroy
1.51
B36 II
2.23

finishing

Suduroy+0.00on par
B36 II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduroy ↓

B36 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Suduroy or draw
74%
Suduroy or B36 II
80%
Draw or B36 II
46%

Winning margin

Suduroy wins by 2+
33%
B36 II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Suduroy 1+ goals
90%
Suduroy 2+ goals
67%
Suduroy 3+ goals
40%
B36 II 1+ goals
79%
B36 II 2+ goals
45%
B36 II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Suduroy (draw refunded)
68%
B36 II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduroy at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

B36 II away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.23 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduroy attack 2.37 + B36 II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.30

B36 II attack 1.56 + Suduroy defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Suduroy scores more
54%
level
20%
B36 II scores more
26%

Suduroy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Suduroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Suduroy 1–1 B36 II

Suduroy and B36 II drew 1-1 in 1. Deild on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Vesturi á Eiðinum in Vágur, Suðuroy.