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B36 II vs Suduroy — 1. Deild 2019

B36 II
B36 II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Suduroy
Suduroy
3/9/20241. Deild1. Deild · Round 1Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

B36 II43%
×Draw22%
Suduroy35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B36 II
1.89
Suduroy
1.69

B36 II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 37 away

creates per match

B36 II
1.85
Suduroy
1.70

allows per match

B36 II
1.68
Suduroy
1.92

finishing

B36 II+0.00on par
Suduroy+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B36 II ↓

Suduroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

B36 II or draw
65%
B36 II or Suduroy
78%
Draw or Suduroy
57%

Winning margin

B36 II wins by 2+
23%
Suduroy wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

B36 II 1+ goals
85%
B36 II 2+ goals
56%
B36 II 3+ goals
29%
Suduroy 1+ goals
82%
Suduroy 2+ goals
50%
Suduroy 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

B36 II (draw refunded)
55%
Suduroy (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B36 II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.68 · 105 matches

Suduroy away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.92 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B36 II attack 1.85 + Suduroy defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.89

Suduroy attack 1.70 + B36 II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

B36 II scores more
43%
level
22%
Suduroy scores more
35%

B36 II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "B36 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

B36 II 1 – 1 Suduroy

B36 II and Suduroy drew 1-1 in 1. Deild on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gundadalur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.