Sudtirol 1–1 Venezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sudtirol

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Venezia

S. Merkaj 47'

A. Hainaut 54'

2/28/2026

Serie B · Round 27Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sudtirol34%

×Draw29%

Venezia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudtirolExpected goals in this matchVenezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.16

Sudtirol

1.10

Venezia

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 118 away

1.14

creates per match

1.22

1.10

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Sudtirol

1.14

Venezia

1.22

allows per match

Sudtirol

1.10

Venezia

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Venezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Venezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw

63%

Sudtirol or Venezia

71%

Draw or Venezia

66%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+

14%

Venezia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals

67%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

30%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

10%

Venezia 1+ goals

69%

Venezia 2+ goals

32%

Venezia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

48%

Venezia (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Venezia away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Venezia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Venezia attack 1.22 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sudtirol scores more

34%

level

29%

Venezia scores more

37%

Venezia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Hainaut

Venezia · M

8.2

Match Events

19'

46'

47'

54'

63'

65'

65'

66'

67'

A. Casas← L. Lauberbach

74'

R. Sagrado← R. Haps

76'

M. R. Frigerio← D. Casiraghi

85'

R. Tonin← E. Pecorino

86'

A. Adorante← J. Yeboah

90'

Antonio Casas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SudtirolVenezia

Overview

35%Possession65%

12Total Shots12

1.23Expected Goals (xG)1.24

6Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots12

2On Target4

8Off Target4

2Blocked4

10Inside Box9

2Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

214Total Passes419

128Accurate Passes341

60%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0.03Goals Prevented0.03

Discipline

13Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Serie B: Sudtirol 1–1 Venezia

Sudtirol and Venezia drew 1-1 in Serie B on February 28, 2026.

Goals: S. Merkaj (47'), A. Hainaut (54').

Venezia controlled possession (65%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Druso in Bolzano.

Sudtirol vs Venezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Sudtirol 1–1 Venezia