Sudtirol 0–3 Venezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sudtirol

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Venezia

J. Pohjanpalo 90+3', 12'

F. Zampano 81'

2/10/2024

Serie B · Round 24Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sudtirol34%

×Draw29%

Venezia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudtirolExpected goals in this matchVenezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.16

Sudtirol

1.10

Venezia

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 118 away

1.14

creates per match

1.22

1.10

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Sudtirol

1.14

Venezia

1.22

allows per match

Sudtirol

1.10

Venezia

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Venezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Venezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw

63%

Sudtirol or Venezia

71%

Draw or Venezia

66%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+

14%

Venezia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals

67%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

30%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

10%

Venezia 1+ goals

69%

Venezia 2+ goals

32%

Venezia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

48%

Venezia (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Venezia away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Venezia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Venezia attack 1.22 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sudtirol scores more

34%

level

29%

Venezia scores more

37%

Venezia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Pohjanpalo

Venezia · F

8.7

Match Events

12'

J. Pohjanpalo↳ F. Zampano

18'

20'

57'

59'

59'

J. Kurtič← T. Arrigoni

59'

N. Pierini← C. Gytkjær

65'

Jesse Joronen

72'

M. Ellertsson← B. Bjarkason

72'

G. Altare← M. Kofod Andersen

75'

Andrea Masiello

75'

Andrea Masiello

81'

F. Zampano↳ M. Ellertsson

82'

R. Odogwu← D. Casiraghi

82'

84'

85'

87'

88'

N. Rauti← E. Pecorino

88'

M. Olivieri← G. Busio

89'

Nicola Rauti

90+3'

J. Pohjanpalo↳ N. Pierini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SudtirolVenezia

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots14

5Corners3

20Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots14

2On Target4

7Off Target6

3Blocked4

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

491Total Passes508

407Accurate Passes440

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls15

7Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

Serie B: Sudtirol 0–3 Venezia

Venezia beat Sudtirol 3-0 in Serie B on February 10, 2024.

Goals: J. Pohjanpalo (12', 90+3'), F. Zampano (81').

Venezia controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Druso in Bozen.

Sudtirol vs Venezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Sudtirol 0–3 Venezia