Sudtirol 2–1 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sudtirol

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Spezia

R. Kofler 51'

E. Pecorino 34'

V. Vlahovic 31'

1/10/2026

Serie B · Round 19Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sudtirol39%

×Draw28%

Spezia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudtirolExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.11

Sudtirol

1.25

Spezia

1.11

Sudtirol creates 13% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 98 away

1.14

creates per match

1.12

1.10

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sudtirol

1.14

Spezia

1.12

allows per match

Sudtirol

1.10

Spezia

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw

67%

Sudtirol or Spezia

72%

Draw or Spezia

61%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+

17%

Spezia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals

71%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

36%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

13%

Spezia 1+ goals

67%

Spezia 2+ goals

30%

Spezia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

55%

Spezia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Spezia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Spezia attack 1.12 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sudtirol scores more

39%

level

28%

Spezia scores more

33%

Sudtirol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

R. Kofler

Sudtirol · D

8.3

Match Events

28'

Luca Vignali

31'

V. Vlahovic↳ A. Nagy

34'

E. Pecorino↳ D. Casiraghi

51'

R. Kofler

60'

G. Artistico← V. Vlahovic

61'

L. Sernicola← L. Vignali

62'

F. Davi← F. Tait

73'

N. Pietrangeli← K. Zedadka

73'

C. Comotto← A. Nagy

73'

E. Adamo← G. Aurelio

74'

R. Odogwu← E. Pecorino

78'

F. Bordon← S. Tronchin

78'

M. R. Frigerio← D. Casiraghi

80'

Silvio Merkaj

82'

G. Lapadula← G. Di Serio

87'

Emanuele Adamo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SudtirolSpezia

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots12

1.38Expected Goals (xG)1.85

3Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target3

3Off Target6

3Blocked3

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

283Total Passes465

182Accurate Passes368

64%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0