Spezia 3–0 Sudtirol: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sudtirol

L. Vignali 70'

F. Esposito 41'

N. Pietrangeli 7' (OG)

11/24/2024

Serie B · Round 14Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Spezia44%

×Draw27%

Sudtirol29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchSudtirol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.06

Spezia

1.39

Sudtirol

1.06

Spezia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 78 away

1.48

creates per match

1.08

1.04

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Spezia

1.48

Sudtirol

1.08

allows per match

Spezia

1.04

Sudtirol

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Sudtirol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

71%

Spezia or Sudtirol

73%

Draw or Sudtirol

56%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

21%

Sudtirol wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

75%

Spezia 2+ goals

40%

Spezia 3+ goals

16%

Sudtirol 1+ goals

65%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

29%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

61%

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.04 · 98 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.48 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Spezia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Spezia scores more

44%

level

27%

Sudtirol scores more

29%

Spezia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Esposito

Spezia · F

8.6

Match Events

5'

Rachid KoudaGoal cancelled

7'

N. PietrangeliOwn goal

27'

D. Degli Innocenti← R. Kouda

41'

F. Esposito

46'

J. Kurtić← M. Praszelik

46'

R. Odogwu← M. Rover

50'

Jasmin Kurtić

53'

D. Casiraghi← K. Zedadka

68'

G. Di Serio← A. Čolak

68'

S. Elia← A. Reca

68'

A. Mallamo← S. Merkaj

70'

L. Vignali↳ F. Esposito

74'

H. El Kaouakibi← S. Davì

78'

G. Aurelio← L. Vignali

78'

E. Soleri← F. Esposito

85'

Duccio Degli Innocenti

85'

Andrea Giorgini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaSudtirol

Overview

43%Possession57%

18Total Shots7

6Corners0

19Fouls20

Shots

18Total Shots7

6On Target1

6Off Target4

6Blocked2

10Inside Box2

8Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

352Total Passes477

255Accurate Passes370

72%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls20

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Serie B: Spezia 3–0 Sudtirol

Spezia beat Sudtirol 3-0 in Serie B on November 24, 2024.

Goals: N. Pietrangeli (7' o.g.), F. Esposito (41'), L. Vignali (70').

Sudtirol controlled possession (57%) and registered 7 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.

Spezia vs Sudtirol — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Spezia 3–0 Sudtirol