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Sudtirol vs Padova — Serie B 2018

Sudtirol
Sudtirol
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Padova
Padova
1/25/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 21Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sudtirol52%
×Draw25%
Padova24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudtirol
1.63
Padova
1.02

Sudtirol creates 60% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sudtirol
1.21
Padova
0.91

allows per match

Sudtirol
1.12
Padova
2.05

finishing

Sudtirol-0.51scores less
Padova+0.09on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Padova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw
76%
Sudtirol or Padova
75%
Draw or Padova
48%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+
27%
Padova wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals
80%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
48%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
22%
Padova 1+ goals
64%
Padova 2+ goals
27%
Padova 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)
68%
Padova (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 10 matches

Padova away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.05 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.21 + Padova defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.63

Padova attack 0.91 + Sudtirol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sudtirol scores more
52%
level
25%
Padova scores more
24%

Sudtirol at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sudtirol vs Padova

Sudtirol beat Padova 3-0 in Serie B on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Druso in Bolzano.