Padova 1–1 Sudtirol: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sudtirol

11/1/2025

Serie B · Round 11Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Padova33%

×Draw28%

Sudtirol39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchSudtirol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.25

Padova

1.14

Sudtirol

1.25

Sudtirol creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.03

creates per match

0.92

1.58

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Padova

1.03

Sudtirol

0.92

allows per match

Padova

1.58

Sudtirol

1.24

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Padova-0.03on par

Sudtirol-0.32scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Sudtirol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Padova or draw

61%

Padova or Sudtirol

72%

Draw or Sudtirol

67%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

14%

Sudtirol wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

68%

Padova 2+ goals

32%

Padova 3+ goals

11%

Sudtirol 1+ goals

71%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

36%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

46%

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 8 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.03 + Sudtirol defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sudtirol attack 0.92 + Padova defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Padova scores more

33%

level

28%

Sudtirol scores more

39%

Sudtirol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff